UK Covid-19 forecast 17th April 2020

These are the results from my covid-19 prediction, updated on 17th April 2020.

I have been tracking the progress of the UK cases and comparing the numbers with a simple model. The model seems to have been doing rather well - well enough, that I thought I would post its forecast.

This isn't an exact science, The model is very simple and I'm not an epidemiologist. Please take everything here with a pinch of salt. I have included an uncertainty estimate with the numbers, by saying give or take a certain amount or presenting a range. These are all 95% confidence, meaning that I think there is a 95% chance that reality will fall within the range - but this assumes that the simple model is right. Remember, this is a simple model, so the numbers may turn out to be totally wrong.

Covid-19 is a coronavirus - one of eight strains of coronavirus that humans can catch. We do not have a vaccine for any coronavirus strain and typically people can catch coronaviruses multiple times. The figures here are only for the first wave of UK infections. It is likely there will be further waves.

Date that number of confirmed cases per day is expected to drop below one thousand

24th April 2020 give or take 2 days

Expected total number of confirmed cases

131,000 give or take 20,000

Date that number of deaths per day is expected to drop below one hundred

21st April give or take 3 days

Expected total number of deaths

Within the range 15,000 give or take 4000

Please exercise caution with these numbers. They are my best guess, nothing more.

Comments

There is no covid-19 lockdown exit strategey

I have been discussing long term outcomes of the covid-19 outbreak since the UK had just a few dozen cases. It's clear that similar discussions, within the scientific and political community, have not borne fruit. On the BBC's Andrew Marr show today, advisor the UK government, Neil Fergusson, said the UK does not have an exit strategy, but hopefully will within the next week or two. South Korea, widely hailed as one of the countries that successfully dealt with the virus is also struggling with exactly the same question and has not yet reached any conclusions. In fact, as cases drop, South Korea is considering tightening restrictions. As far as I can see at this point, there is only one country in the world with an exit strategy - Sweden. There are exactly three outcomes to this pandemic We discover a vaccine or effective treatment, immunise/treat people so they become medically immune and the problem goes away. Eventually so many people catch the disease and become nat

UK covid-19 forecast 20th April 2020

Here are the results from my covid-19 prediction, updated with the figures from 20th April 2020. I have been tracking the progress of the UK cases and comparing the numbers with a simple model. The model seems to have been doing rather well - well enough, that I thought I would post its forecast. I haven't posted the forecast for two days. Since then the number of deaths per day has dropped two days in a row. The model is forecasting a rapid drop in deaths right now, with that figure dropping below 100 in the next few days. However, we often see a drop in deaths on Sundays and Mondays, due to delays in reporting deaths over the weekend. These dips are often followed by a spike on Tuesday. In addition, the model is predicting an even faster drop than we have seen and is underpredicting the total deaths at the moment.. I hope the drop we have seen is real and continues in today's figures. Meanwhile, the model continues to do a good job with representing w

Moral dilemma of choosing who dies

There is a classic thought experiment in ethics - in this experiment, by taking action you save some people but condemn others, what do you do? Here is a version, known as the trolley problem. Imagine you find out about the plan of a dastardly villain - he has tied five people to the train line and set a runaway train heading towards them. You have realised that there is a junction between the train and the people and you can put a lever and divert the train onto a sideline. Unfortunately, the dastardly villain has also spotted the sideline but in his haste to get away he only had time to tie a single person to the tracks in this direction. What do you do? Do you do nothing and let the actions of the villain be his responsibility solely or do you decide to take action, divert the train and choose to sacrifice the lone person in order to save the larger group? In studies, most people say that they will take action and save the larger group, but some do say they will do nothing

Virus Simulator

Search This Blog