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UK Covid-19 forecast 16th April 2020

I have been tracking the progress of the UK cases and comparing the numbers with a simple model. The model seems to have been doing rather well - well enough, that I thought I would post its forecast.

This isn't an exact science, The model is very simple and I'm not an epidemiologist. Please take everything here with a pinch of salt. I have included an uncertainty estimate with the numbers, by saying give or take a certain amount or presenting a range. These are all 95% confidence, meaning that I think there is a 95% chance that reality will fall within the range - but this assumes that the simple model is right. Remember, this is a simple model, so the numbers may turn out to be totally wrong.

Date that number of confirmed cases per day is expected to drop below one thousand

25th April 2020 give or take 2 days

Expected total number of confirmed cases

133,000 give or take 20,000

Date that number of deaths per day is expected to drop below one hundred

21st April give or take 3 days

Expected total number of deaths

Within the range 12,500-19,000

Please exercise caution with these numbers. They are my best guess, nothing more.


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