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UK covid-19 forecast 20th April 2020



Here are the results from my covid-19 prediction, updated with the figures from 20th April 2020.

I have been tracking the progress of the UK cases and comparing the numbers with a simple model. The model seems to have been doing rather well - well enough, that I thought I would post its forecast.

I haven't posted the forecast for two days. Since then the number of deaths per day has dropped two days in a row. The model is forecasting a rapid drop in deaths right now, with that figure dropping below 100 in the next few days. However, we often see a drop in deaths on Sundays and Mondays, due to delays in reporting deaths over the weekend. These dips are often followed by a spike on Tuesday. In addition, the model is predicting an even faster drop than we have seen and is underpredicting the total deaths at the moment.. I hope the drop we have seen is real and continues in today's figures.

Meanwhile, the model continues to do a good job with representing what is happening with cases, so hopefully the forecast for the upcoming drop in cases per day will also happen in the real world. This looks to be an important week,. The model is predicting that both deaths and cases will drop rapidly over the next few days.

This isn't an exact science, The model is very simple and I'm not an epidemiologist. Please take everything here with a pinch of salt. I have included an uncertainty estimate with the numbers, by saying give or take a certain amount or presenting a range. These are all 95% confidence, meaning that I think there is a 95% chance that reality will fall within the range - but this assumes that the simple model is right. Remember, this is a simple model, so the numbers may turn out to be totally wrong.

Covid-19 is a coronavirus - one of eight strains of coronavirus that humans can catch. We do not have a vaccine for any coronavirus strain and typically people can catch coronaviruses multiple times. The figures here are only for the first wave of UK infections. It is likely there will be further waves.

Date that number of confirmed cases per day is expected to drop below one thousand

24th April 2020 give or take 1 days

Expected total number of confirmed cases

129,000 give or take 8,000

Date that number of deaths per day is expected to drop below one hundred

Within the range 21st April to 24th April

Expected total number of deaths

Within the range 17,000 to 19,000

Please exercise caution with these numbers. They are my best guess, nothing more.



Comments

  1. Andy Emery4 May 2020 at 00:28

    Do you have any updated thoughts now including the care home side of things?

    ReplyDelete

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