Here are the results from my covid-19 prediction, updated on 18th April 2020.
I have been tracking the progress of the UK cases and comparing the numbers with a simple model. The model seems to have been doing rather well - well enough, that I thought I would post its forecast. However, today's
This isn't an exact science, The model is very simple and I'm not an epidemiologist. Please take everything here with a pinch of salt. I have included an uncertainty estimate with the numbers, by saying give or take a certain amount or presenting a range. These are all 95% confidence, meaning that I think there is a 95% chance that reality will fall within the range - but this assumes that the simple model is right. Remember, this is a simple model, so the numbers may turn out to be totally wrong.
A note about deaths - although the number of cases continues to match the curve well, today's deaths do not match so well. There were more deaths than predicted. It maybe we are seeing the model break down or it may be that this is an anomaly. At the weekend, reporting of deaths is often delayed, so if numbers drop for the next couple of days it may not be real. Time will tell.
Covid-19 is a coronavirus - one of eight strains of coronavirus that humans can catch. We do not have a vaccine for any coronavirus strain and typically people can catch coronaviruses multiple times. The figures here are only for the first wave of UK infections. It is likely there will be further waves.
Date that number of confirmed cases per day is expected to drop below one thousand
24th April 2020 give or take 1 days
Expected total number of confirmed cases
129,000 give or take 10,000
Date that number of deaths per day is expected to drop below one hundred
Within the range 21st April to 24th April
Expected total number of deaths
Within the range 15,000 to 18,000
Please exercise caution with these numbers. They are my best guess, nothing more.
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