UK Covid-19 forecast 18th April 2020

Here are the results from my covid-19 prediction, updated on 18th April 2020.

I have been tracking the progress of the UK cases and comparing the numbers with a simple model. The model seems to have been doing rather well - well enough, that I thought I would post its forecast. However, today's

This isn't an exact science, The model is very simple and I'm not an epidemiologist. Please take everything here with a pinch of salt. I have included an uncertainty estimate with the numbers, by saying give or take a certain amount or presenting a range. These are all 95% confidence, meaning that I think there is a 95% chance that reality will fall within the range - but this assumes that the simple model is right. Remember, this is a simple model, so the numbers may turn out to be totally wrong.

A note about deaths - although the number of cases continues to match the curve well, today's deaths do not match so well. There were more deaths than predicted. It maybe we are seeing the model break down or it may be that this is an anomaly. At the weekend, reporting of deaths is often delayed, so if numbers drop for the next couple of days it may not be real. Time will tell.

Covid-19 is a coronavirus - one of eight strains of coronavirus that humans can catch. We do not have a vaccine for any coronavirus strain and typically people can catch coronaviruses multiple times. The figures here are only for the first wave of UK infections. It is likely there will be further waves.

Date that number of confirmed cases per day is expected to drop below one thousand

24th April 2020 give or take 1 days

Expected total number of confirmed cases

129,000 give or take 10,000

Date that number of deaths per day is expected to drop below one hundred

Within the range 21st April to 24th April

Expected total number of deaths

Within the range 15,000 to 18,000

Please exercise caution with these numbers. They are my best guess, nothing more.

Comments

Moral dilemma of choosing who dies

There is a classic thought experiment in ethics - in this experiment, by taking action you save some people but condemn others, what do you do? Here is a version, known as the trolley problem. Imagine you find out about the plan of a dastardly villain - he has tied five people to the train line and set a runaway train heading towards them. You have realised that there is a junction between the train and the people and you can put a lever and divert the train onto a sideline. Unfortunately, the dastardly villain has also spotted the sideline but in his haste to get away he only had time to tie a single person to the tracks in this direction. What do you do? Do you do nothing and let the actions of the villain be his responsibility solely or do you decide to take action, divert the train and choose to sacrifice the lone person in order to save the larger group? In studies, most people say that they will take action and save the larger group, but some do say they will do nothing ...

UK covid-19 forecast 20th April 2020

Here are the results from my covid-19 prediction, updated with the figures from 20th April 2020. I have been tracking the progress of the UK cases and comparing the numbers with a simple model. The model seems to have been doing rather well - well enough, that I thought I would post its forecast. I haven't posted the forecast for two days. Since then the number of deaths per day has dropped two days in a row. The model is forecasting a rapid drop in deaths right now, with that figure dropping below 100 in the next few days. However, we often see a drop in deaths on Sundays and Mondays, due to delays in reporting deaths over the weekend. These dips are often followed by a spike on Tuesday. In addition, the model is predicting an even faster drop than we have seen and is underpredicting the total deaths at the moment.. I hope the drop we have seen is real and continues in today's figures. Meanwhile, the model continues to do a good job with representing w...

Domestic abuse and Covid-19

Photo by Kat J on Unsplash When most of us think of the risks from Covid-19, we think about catching the disease and ending up in hospital. This risk is real and serious, whether you are a young fit 20-something or older with underlying health conditions. For some people, there are further risks, both from the disease itself, and from the actions we take. The UK government recently released advice specifically aimed at domestic abuse safe accommodation . Multiple families can live in the same accommodation, so it is important that staff at such accommodation take great care to avoid bringing the infection in. There is also a need to assess how isolation can occur if someone does show Covid-19 symptoms. It may be that only one family needs to isolate themselves, or the entire accommodation might need to be isolated. Expected increase in incidents The police have said that they expect a significant increase in domestic abuse cases. With families required to isolate, and with ...

Virus Simulator

Search This Blog